A secret visit and a secret base
As US-Iran negotiations appear fruitless, a hidden base and a denied meeting are revealed.
Netanyahu in the UAE
On the 13th May, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that during the conflict with Iran, he had secretly travelled to the United Arab Emirates with a delegation and met with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed.
He stated that the visit had “led to a historic breakthrough in relations between Israel and the UAE”.
Shortly afterwards, however, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement of its own. In it, they categorically deny that the UAE received either Netanyahu or any Israeli Military delegation. The wording of their statement (shown below) is odd, calling the reports “unfounded”, adding that media outlets reporting it were promoting misleading political narratives.
There is some evidence to suggest that a visit did occur. Data visible on Flightradar24.com and adsbexchange.com shows that two private jets travelled between Israel and the UAE on 26 March.
The UAE was heavily targeted by Iran during the conflict due to accusations of close collaboration with the US and Israel. The response by the UAE is likely an effort to avoid these accusations being seen as valid, and consequently, the strikes on the UAE being ‘in some way justified.
Negotiations are going nowhere
Talks between the US and Iran have been ongoing for some time now and apparently have made very little headway. The Iranians submitted a proposal this week, which President Trump called “unacceptable”.
According to sources speaking to CNN, Donald Trump has become frustrated with the lack of progress from discussions. He is reportedly considering resuming strikes.
Donald Trump is currently on a state visit to China, and while the primary purpose is to discuss the current trade and tariffs between the two, there will almost certainly be discussions relating to Iran due to China’s close ties with the Iranian regime.
China will want to push for an end to the conflict that restores trade through the strait while also protecting its allies in Iran. The recent trade war between China and the US hurt them both, and Trump may attempt to offer a return to more stable trade in exchange for China exerting its influence over Iran and pressuring it to back down.
The visit itself was already impacted by the conflict. Originally, the visit was scheduled for March but was pushed to this week after the war broke out.
Regardless of the outcome of these discussions as they relate to Iran, any resumption of strikes is very unlikely to happen until Trump and his delegation return to the US. President Trump is expected to head back to the US on Friday.
Indications from the Chinese government and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are that Taiwan will be another major topic of the visit. While the US does not formally recognise the Taiwanese state, they do provide military equipment to them and has indicated support in a defensive conflict.
I plan to send out a focused write-up on the tensions between China and Taiwan and the probable outcomes, so look out for that.
An attempted ground attack
Kuwait has revealed that a small number of Iranian IRGC forces attempted to land on Bubiyan Island, located on the northeastern side of the state. The IRGC attempted the crossing to the island on several small watercraft but were unsuccessful. The Kuwaiti Interior Ministry claims to have arrested four IRGC officers involved in the attempt.
The island was used as a firing position for US Marines during the strikes on Iran. The attempted landing was likely intended to target these positions.
It’s worth noting that Iran has commented on the arrests, stating that the individuals arrested were not IRGC members, but instead sailors who became lost when systems onboard malfunctioned.
The Israeli base in Iraq
During the air campaign against Iran carried out by the US and Israel earlier in the year, Israel established and operated an air base inside Iraq. The site functioned as a station for Israeli Special Forces as well as Israeli Air Force assets. The base’s location and secrecy would enable the covert initiation of search and rescue operations for any Israeli pilots downed over Iran.
The base wasn’t only used as an insurance for such an issue, though, and was also used directly to launch air strikes on Iran.
The existence of the base was initially reported by the Wall Street Journal before the exact location was identified by @Obretix and separately by members of the FaytuksNews community. The abandoned airstrip was located deep in the desert in western Iraq, an incredibly sparsely populated area, some 180km southwest of the city of Najaf.
According to @Obretix the base was likely unusable and abandoned by mid-March due to heavy rainfall in the area. As the base was only constructed between 1st and 2nd March, it would have had limited use.
Until as recently as Sunday, Iraqi Government officials denied the presence of a foreign base in the area before admitting to an incident at the beginning of March where their security forces clashed with an unidentified force and took casualties, with one member being killed.
The full statement of the Joint Operations Command from 11th May is below.
The Iraqi army and the Hashd al-Shaabi paramilitary group launched an extensive clearing operation in the region surrounding the location of the air base, which was then secured by the Iraqi armed forces.